Latest tips: Marseille v Montpellier (< 2.5), Bari v Cesena (< 2.5), Independiente v Estudiantes (< 2.5), Sendai v Kawasaki F (> 2.5), Toulouse v Caen (< 2.5) and M’Gladbach v Hannover (> 2.5). Three out of six correct.
4/12/2010
Hit Rate = 59 out of 90
Profit = +33.8 % (start = 0%)
I was planning to write this report after Phil starts sending out tips for the main football leagues but I have been asked to write it up now. In any case, readers might want to get in on the action as soon as Phil does start sending out the goodies so here it is.
The Package
For this review, I was supplied the Football Betting Master e-book that I understand costs £37. I was also subscribed to the weekly tipping service provided by Phil, which costs £9.95 per month and I started tracking the performance of the tips on 16 May 2010.
e-Book
The guide basically covers two subjects. The first half describes how one can go about collecting free money from various online bookmakers and betting exchanges. These are cash incentives that these companies give to entice punters to sign up with them and Phil describes how one can collect the money at no risk by betting on both sides of a two-outcome market, e.g. Over/Under 2.5 goals. Nothing unusual here, other people have described this process. One’s ability to take advantage of this is also limited by geography because many online bookmakers will check the IP address of your computer and may bar you from registering so some of you may not be able to collect this free cash.
The second topic that the e-book covers is the prediction of total goals scored in football matches. It describes a technique that combines historical data of the performance of the teams at home and away with other types of more subjective data to determine the likely number of goals at the 90th minute. If you are familiar with the leagues and what goes on in them then you might be able to apply this technique yourself to generate your own betting selections.
The Weekly Tipping Service
I have tracked this service for a little over three months now and I must say that it has turned in a decent performance. Even though the mid-May to mid-August period is out of season for the major leagues and the World Cup had quite a few upsets (i.e., it was unpredictable), the tips that Phil sent out still managed to generate a 51.6% profit and that is using fixed wagers of 2.5, 5 or 10% of the sum that I initially started off with in May. If I calculate the profit by strictly using Phil’s suggestion, which is to bet 2.5, 5 or 10% of the bank at the moment the bet is being placed then the profit generated is actually 61.2%!
A £1000 bank in mid-May would have grown to £1612 by 22 August. That’s 61.2% in 14 weeks of low season betting! If we compound that rate of growth and extrapolate it to 52 weeks then we are looking at a potential 6-fold increase in the betting bank, i.e., £1000 growing to £6000 over a one-year period. That’s pretty good for a system that tells you which three bets a week to place from your computer whilst you drink your tea. Whether this sterling performance can be maintained over the long run remains to be seen. I will continue to track this service for the next three months.
Now for some statistics. In the 14 weeks that I have monitored this service, I received a total of 48 tips (hmm, it looks like I left out one bet somewhere in my weekly updates). Of these, 34 predictions were correct so the hit rate is 70.8%. In the vast majority of tips, the advice was to wager 5% of the betting bank.
Ease of Use
Three tips were sent out each week by email and the instructions on which outcome to bet on (Over/Under 2.5) and how much to wager were clear. The email also states the two best odds available from the many online bookmakers so you don’t have to go hunting.
Summary
This system appears to work and is quite easy to use. All you do is place three bets each week, you don’t need to do any thinking.
Hit Rate: 70.8%
Average Odds: 1.68
Type of Betting: Back
P&L: +61.2% over 14 weeks (£1000 grew to £1612)
Cost: £9.95 per month plus initial charge for the e-book (prices vary depending on discounts)
